How to Read Kalshi and Polymarket Odds: A Beginner's Guide to Prediction Market Prices
Kalshi and Polymarket are changing how a lot of bettors think about odds. There is no spread, no moneyline and no plus or minus sign to decode, just a price between 1¢ and 99¢. Once you know what that number represents, these markets are easier to read than a traditional sportsbook line.
How payouts work
Every contract settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. Your profit is the gap between what you paid and that $1.
If the outcome does not happen, the contract settles at $0 and you lose what you paid.
Reading a Yes/No market
Every market has two sides that add up to roughly 100%. If "Yes" trades at 62¢, "No" usually trades near 38¢, give or take a small gap between them. Watching both sides shows how confident the market is and how much room the price has to move before the event resolves.
Translating sportsbook odds into cents
Traditional odds hide the probability inside a format you have to decode. Here is what some common sportsbook prices look like as prediction market prices:
| Sportsbook price | Implied probability | Rough contract price |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | 75.0% | 75¢ |
| -150 | 60.0% | 60¢ |
| -110 | 52.4% | 52¢ |
| +130 | 43.5% | 43¢ |
| +200 | 33.3% | 33¢ |
What moves the price
These are live markets, not fixed bookmaker lines. Prices move continuously as people buy and sell in response to news, injury reports, weather and anything else that matters to the outcome. A price climbing toward 90¢ signals growing consensus. A price stuck near 50¢ signals a real toss-up.
Before you trade
Prediction market questions
What does a Kalshi price of 40¢ mean?
Is Polymarket the same as sports betting?
Why is there no spread or moneyline?
Do prediction markets charge a fee?
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