CFP Predictions 2026-27: The 12-Team Bracket the Betting Market Projects After Week 6
Who makes the College Football Playoff if the season ended today? Going by the betting market after Week 6, our CFP predictions have Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia and Miami as the top four seeds, with Texas, Alabama, Indiana, Ole Miss, LSU, Oklahoma, Utah and Boise State filling out the 12-team field. This bracket is built from sportsbook prices through Saturday's games, as of October 11, 2026, not from a poll or a model of our own. The official CFP rankings start on Tuesday, November 3, and we will switch to them then.
CFP predictions: the 12-team bracket the market projects
| Seed | Team | Path in | Title odds | First round |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | Big Ten favorite | +370 to +425 | Bye |
| 2 | Notre Dame | At-large | +470 to +500 | Bye |
| 3 | Georgia | SEC favorite | +450 to +500 | Bye |
| 4 | Miami (FL) | ACC favorite | +650 to +750 | Bye |
| 5 | Texas | At-large | +700 to +900 | Hosts No. 12 Boise State |
| 6 | Alabama | At-large | +850 to +950 | Hosts No. 11 Utah |
| 7 | Indiana | At-large | +1,000 to +1,200 | Hosts No. 10 Oklahoma |
| 8 | Ole Miss | At-large | +2,000 to +2,700 | Hosts No. 9 LSU |
| 9 | LSU | At-large | +2,700 to +3,000 | At No. 8 Ole Miss |
| 10 | Oklahoma | At-large | +4,000 to +5,000 | At No. 7 Indiana |
| 11 | Utah | Big 12 favorite | +5,000 to +8,000 | At No. 6 Alabama |
| 12 | Boise State | Top Group of Six team on the title board | +30,000 to +75,000 | At No. 5 Texas |
Title odds are the range across bet365, BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel from VegasInsider's futures widget, after Saturday's games, as of October 11, 2026. Conference favorites come from VegasInsider's conference championship boards at the same books.
CFP first-round predictions
The four first-round games are played at the higher seed's home stadium on Friday, December 18, and Saturday, December 19. The winners move on to the quarterfinals against the top four seeds: No. 1 Ohio State would get the 8-9 winner, No. 2 Notre Dame the 7-10 winner, No. 3 Georgia the 6-11 winner and No. 4 Miami the 5-12 winner.
Conference title odds behind the automatic bids
| Conference | Favorite | Price | Next in line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten | Ohio State | -125 to -135 | Indiana +200 to +230 |
| SEC | Georgia | -140 to +100 | Alabama +400 to +450, Texas +520 to +600 |
| ACC | Miami (FL) | -450 to -550 | SMU +1,100 to +1,400 |
| Big 12 | Utah | +225 to +260 | Texas Tech +250 to +300, BYU +275 to +450 |
Prices from bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel and BetRivers on VegasInsider's conference boards, as of October 11, 2026. DraftKings was left out because its prices were clearly stale.
The Big 12 is the closest race. Utah, Texas Tech and BYU are all priced between +225 and +450, so the Big 12 automatic bid in this bracket could change hands any week. Utah beat Kansas 41-24 on Saturday and BYU beat Iowa State 24-10. In the SEC, Georgia went from co-favorite to a clear favorite by beating Alabama 20-17, and Texas fell back after losing to Oklahoma.
How the market bracket compares with one expert projection
CBS Sports' bowl projections, updated after Saturday's games on October 10, 2026, agree on 10 of the 12 teams. CBS has Miami as the No. 1 seed, then Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama, and its field includes UCLA and Kentucky in place of LSU and Oklahoma. The difference is the method: a projection forecasts what the committee will do in December, while the market prices which teams are most likely to win it all. Oklahoma (+4,000 to +5,000) and LSU (+2,700 to +3,000) rate ahead of UCLA (+6,000 to +8,000) and Kentucky (+17,500 to +30,000) on the title board.
CFP games to watch in Week 7
Saturday, October 17 has three games that could reshape this bracket: Ohio State at Indiana (Ohio State -3.5 to -4.5), Alabama at Tennessee (Alabama -6.5) and Missouri at Ole Miss (Ole Miss -6 to -6.5). Notre Dame also travels to BYU as an 11.5 to 13.5 point favorite. Lines are as of Sunday morning, October 11; our Week 7 preview has the full slate, line moves and injuries.
How the 2026 College Football Playoff works
- 12 teams: the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, the highest-ranked champion from the other conferences, and the next seven highest-ranked teams.
- Seeding follows the committee's final ranking, so a top-four ranked team gets a first-round bye whether or not it wins its conference.
- First round: December 18 and 19, 2026, at campus sites. Quarterfinals: the Fiesta, Cotton, Peach and Rose Bowls. Semifinals: the Orange Bowl on January 14 and the Sugar Bowl on January 15, 2027.
- National championship: Monday, January 25, 2027, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
Format and dates per the College Football Playoff's announced 2026-27 schedule as reported by FBSchedules; check the official schedule for final kickoff times.
CFP prediction questions
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