Bowl Projections 2026-27: CFP Field and Title Odds After Week 4
Five weeks into the season, the playoff picture already looks different from August. Florida went from a +6000 afterthought to a top-ten title contender after running over Ole Miss 52-28. Oregon opened as one of the favorites and has drifted to around +2000. Bowl projections will change every week from here to Selection Day, so this page tracks two things that matter to bettors: where one major projection has the 12-team field, and where the betting market has it.
College Football Playoff projection after Week 4
Athlon Sports published this bracket on September 27, after Week 4. The first round is played at the higher seed's stadium on December 18 and 19, and the top four seeds wait for the quarterfinals on December 30 and January 1. Full dates for every round are in our bowl season and CFP schedule guide.
| Seed | Team | Projected path |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | Bye, Cotton Bowl QF |
| 2 | Georgia | Bye, Peach Bowl QF |
| 3 | Notre Dame | Bye, Fiesta Bowl QF |
| 4 | Indiana | Bye, Rose Bowl QF |
| 5 | Ohio State | Hosts No. 12 Boise State |
| 6 | Miami | Hosts No. 11 Texas Tech |
| 7 | Florida | Hosts No. 10 LSU |
| 8 | Alabama | Hosts No. 9 Ole Miss |
| 9 | Ole Miss | At No. 8 Alabama |
| 10 | LSU | At No. 7 Florida |
| 11 | Texas Tech | At No. 6 Miami |
| 12 | Boise State | At No. 5 Ohio State |
In Athlon's bracket, the quarterfinals land as Notre Dame vs. Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, Georgia vs. Florida in the Peach, Texas vs. Alabama in the Cotton and Indiana vs. Ohio State in the Rose. Athlon projects Texas to beat Georgia for the national title.
What the betting market says
A projection is one person's read. Title odds are where bettors put money behind their read. Here are the 12 shortest prices to win the national championship, using the middle price across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel and BetRivers. This is not a bracket, just a ranking of who the market thinks can win it all, but it lines up closely with the projection.
| Team | Typical price | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +475 | +550 |
| Georgia | +550 | +720 |
| Notre Dame | +600 | +610 |
| Texas | +625 | +650 |
| Miami | +750 | +900 |
| Indiana | +1100 | +1200 |
| LSU | +1500 | +1600 |
| Oregon | +1800 | +2200 |
| Florida | +1800 | +2000 |
| Alabama | +2000 | +2500 |
| Ole Miss | +2650 | +3000 |
| Texas Tech | +4000 | +5200 |
The one real disagreement is the last spot. The market has Oregon in its top 12, while Athlon's bracket gives that place to Boise State as a conference champion. That makes sense. A team can earn a playoff spot as a conference champion without being a real threat to win it all, and title odds only measure the second part. When you compare the two, expect the market to leave out the lowest-seeded conference champions every time.
Biggest moves in the title odds since the preseason
Comparing the opening price to today's board shows which teams the market has changed its mind on. Opening prices are from SportsbookReview's futures board. Current prices are the range across the major books.
| Team | Opened | Now | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | +6000 | +1800 to +2000 | Shortened |
| Miami | +1500 | +700 to +900 | Shortened |
| Mississippi State | +20000 | +7500 to +8000 | Shortened |
| Georgia | +1000 | +500 to +720 | Shortened |
| Oregon | +700 | +950 to +2300 | Drifted |
| Texas Tech | +1500 | +2200 to +5200 | Drifted |
| Alabama | +1500 | +2000 to +2500 | Drifted |
| Indiana | +800 | +950 to +1200 | Drifted |
Florida is the story of the season so far, cut from +6000 to around +1800 after the win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss. Miami has been cut in half too. On the other side, Oregon and Texas Tech have drifted, and Alabama has gone from +1500 to around +2000. Some books disagree sharply on Oregon: DraftKings still has the Ducks at +950 while others are past +2000, the kind of split that rewards anyone who compares sportsbooks.
Other bowl projections to watch
Outside the playoff, Athlon's September 27 projections include these notable matchups. Bowl tie-ins depend on conference standings, so expect most of these to change.
| Bowl | Projected matchup |
|---|---|
| Alamo Bowl | BYU vs. Oregon |
| Gator Bowl | SMU vs. Oklahoma |
| Holiday Bowl | Clemson vs. UCLA |
| Las Vegas Bowl | USC vs. Missouri |
| Music City Bowl | Michigan vs. Kentucky |
| ReliaQuest Bowl | Penn State vs. Mississippi State |
| Texas Bowl | Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M |
How to use bowl projections when you bet
Postseason futures are a long game. For something that settles this weekend, see our free picks or our premium picks and packages, which include our money-back guarantee paid in GSP Bucks. This week's lines are in our college football Week 5 odds, and the title market is broken down in our national championship odds guide.
Bowl projection questions
Who is projected to make the College Football Playoff?
Who is the favorite to win the national championship?
When are the CFP first-round games?
How often do bowl projections change?
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