Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction and Odds: Chiefs -3.5 in Atlanta
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons at six books on SportsbookReview as of Friday morning, November 13, 2026, with the total at 47 to 47.5. That points to about Chiefs 25.5, Falcons 22. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on CBS from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes hurt his throwing elbow on a strip sack against the Jets, and Andy Reid called him day to day on Monday, per the AP. Tests did not show a major injury, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport via SI.
Chiefs vs Falcons odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (KC / ATL) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | KC -3.5 (+100) | -185 / +150 | 47 |
| bet365 | KC -3.5 (+100) | -180 / +150 | 47.5 |
| FanDuel | KC -3.5 (+100) | -172 / +144 | 47.5 |
| Fanatics | KC -3.5 (+100) | -180 / +150 | 47 |
| BetRivers | KC -3.5 (-104) | -186 / +155 | 47 |
| Caesars | KC -3.5 (-106) | -182 / +153 | 47.5 |
We left DraftKings out of the table because its NFL column on SportsbookReview has been stale at times this season. Every remaining book has Kansas City at -3.5, most at even money, which tells you the market is between 3 and 3.5. ESPN's board showed Chiefs -3 earlier in the week.
FanDuel has the cheapest Chiefs moneyline at -172, and BetRivers the best Falcons price at +155. Lines move, so check the number before you bet.
Chiefs vs Falcons prediction from the odds
That gives the market's prediction as Chiefs 25.5, Falcons 22. The move from -3 to -3.5 came after the positive report on Mahomes' elbow, per SI.
| Source | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Market | Chiefs by 3.5 | 47 to 47.5 |
| Prediction Tracker median | Chiefs by 4.6 (std dev 2.4) | Not listed |
| Massey Ratings | Chiefs 24, Falcons 20 | 44 |
Both systems have Kansas City by four to four and a half, about a point over the market. That is not enough cushion for a lean on its own, and Mahomes' elbow is the bigger question.
How the Chiefs and Falcons got here
Kansas City is 6-2 and beat the Jets on November 8, the game in which Mahomes was hurt on a strip sack by Jets rookie David Bailey, per SI.
Atlanta is 3-6, per ESPN, three and a half games behind Kansas City's record. Both rating systems below project a Kansas City win by about four points in Atlanta.
Chiefs vs Falcons injury report
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes, QB | Chiefs | Elbow; day to day (AP), expected to play (Rapoport via SI) |
The Chiefs list practice participation daily, and Friday's report carries the game designations. Until Mahomes practices fully, treat his status as unresolved.
No lean on this game.
Our projection is Chiefs by about 4, a point over the line, short of our lean bar.
We also do not lean while a starting quarterback is day to day. Situation: Kansas City travels after a home win; Atlanta is at home.
We may also have a premium play on this game. A lean here is our editorial read of the market and can differ from the premium pick. Our free plays are on the free picks page, and our full card is on premium picks.
For every Week 10 game, see our NFL Week 10 preview. Other games we broke down this week: Patriots vs Lions, Vikings vs Packers, Steelers vs Bengals on Sunday night and Chargers vs Ravens on Monday night.