Rays vs Brewers Prediction: World Series Game 1 Odds and Pitching Matchup
The Milwaukee Brewers are -158 to -167 favorites over the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of the World Series as of October 23, 2026, 10:45 AM ET, with the Rays +134 to +138 and the total at 6 runs at most books. Once the margin is removed, that moneyline gives Milwaukee about a 59% chance to win Friday night at American Family Field. Jacob Misiorowski starts for the Brewers. The Rays surprised people by naming Nick Martinez instead of Drew Rasmussen.
Rays vs Brewers Game 1 odds at every book
| Book | Run line (MIL -1.5) | Moneyline TB / MIL | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opener | +150 | +135 / -165 | 6 (O -105, U -115) |
| BetMGM | +150 | +135 / -165 | 6 (-110 / -110) |
| bet365 | +147 | +138 / -163 | 6.5 (O +106, U -126) |
| DraftKings | +150 | +134 / -162 | 6 (O -111, U -108) |
| FanDuel | +146 | +134 / -158 | 6.5 (O +106, U -130) |
| Fanatics | +145 | +135 / -165 | 6 (-110 / -110) |
| BetRivers | +143 | +138 / -167 | 6 (O -103, U -120) |
| Caesars | +153 | +136 / -159 | 6 (O -107, U -110) |
Prices come from SportsbookReview's MLB odds board and were checked against the Game 1 numbers reported by FOX 13 Tampa Bay (Brewers -164, Rays +135, total 6) and Sports Illustrated (DraftKings Brewers -162, Rays +134). The best Brewers price is -158 at FanDuel. The best Rays price is +138 at bet365 and BetRivers. Bettors who like the Brewers on the run line get the most at Caesars, +153. Two books hang 6.5 with a plus price on the Over, which works out close to the same bet as 6 at the other five. Our sportsbook page lists the books we work with.
Rays vs Brewers prediction from the odds
We do not post a pick on this page. Here is what the market says about Game 1, step by step.
Game 1 pitching matchup: Misiorowski vs Martinez
| Pitcher | Team | 2026 regular season | 2026 postseason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Brewers | 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, 0.80 WHIP | 2 starts, 8 1/3 IP, 3.24 ERA, 11 K, 4 BB |
| Nick Martinez | Rays | 3.10 ERA, All-Star | Started ALDS Game 3 and ALCS Game 4 |
Jacob Misiorowski led the majors in ERA (1.80) and strikeouts (252) during the regular season and has touched 104.8 mph. His October has been shorter: he has not finished five innings in either of his two postseason starts. He last pitched in Game 1 of the NLCS on October 11, so he comes in on 11 days of rest after Milwaukee swept the Dodgers.
Nick Martinez posted a 3.10 ERA for Tampa Bay and made his first All-Star team this year. The Rays chose him over Drew Rasmussen, who was available on normal rest, to give Rasmussen an extra day. Rasmussen is lined up for Game 2 in Milwaukee, and ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta, a former Brewer, is set for Game 3 at Tropicana Field. Rasmussen has a 1.29 ERA with 23 strikeouts and 3 walks over 21 postseason innings, which is why the Game 2 price will be worth a look.
How the Rays and Brewers got to the World Series
| Round | Tampa Bay Rays | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Regular season | 98-64 | 103-59 (best in MLB) |
| Division Series | Beat Yankees 3-0 | Beat Padres 3-1 |
| Championship Series | Beat Guardians 4-2 | Beat Dodgers 4-0 |
| Postseason record | 7-2 | 7-1 |
The Milwaukee Brewers won a franchise-record 103 games, which gives them home field for Games 1, 2, 6 and 7. They reached their first World Series since 1982 by sweeping the two-time defending champion Dodgers, with Jake Bauers named NLCS MVP. The Tampa Bay Rays swept the Yankees and beat Cleveland in six for their third pennant. Neither franchise has won a World Series. In their only regular-season series, Milwaukee won two of three at American Family Field.
Rays vs Brewers World Series odds and schedule
Milwaukee is -165 to win the series at BetMGM and -155 at DraftKings, with Tampa Bay +145 and +135. Removing the margin, that puts the Brewers at 58.8% to 60.4% to win their first title. Polymarket runs its own World Series market alongside the sportsbooks. Our World Series odds page tracks the series price, the exact-result prices and the MVP market as the series moves.
| Game | Date | Site |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Friday, Oct. 23 | Milwaukee |
| Game 2 | Saturday, Oct. 24 | Milwaukee |
| Game 3 | Monday, Oct. 26 | Tampa Bay |
| Game 4 | Tuesday, Oct. 27 | Tampa Bay |
| Game 5* | Wednesday, Oct. 28 | Tampa Bay |
| Game 6* | Friday, Oct. 30 | Milwaukee |
| Game 7* | Saturday, Oct. 31 | Milwaukee |
Every game starts at 8:00 PM ET on FOX. An asterisk means the game is played only if needed. Sunday, October 25 and Thursday, October 29 are travel days.
Rays and Brewers injury and roster notes for Game 1
The biggest roster question is Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers right-hander has not pitched since July 4 because of right shoulder inflammation. He faced hitters on Tuesday, and manager Pat Murphy said Thursday that no decision had been made, with the World Series roster due Friday morning. CBS Sports, citing The Athletic, reported he was unlikely to be added. If he does make it, he would pitch in relief, so he does not change the Game 1 starting matchup.
On the Tampa Bay side, third baseman Junior Caminero, the Rays' best power bat, came through a collision in ALCS Game 1 without injury and played the rest of the series. Both Game 1 starters are confirmed. Statuses are as of the morning of October 23 and can change once rosters are filed.