2026 Heisman Trophy Odds: Who Leads the Race Right Now

Three weeks into the college football season, the Heisman race does not have a runaway leader so much as a clear favorite with a pack of closers right behind him. A Miami quarterback completing passes at a video-game rate, a transfer who just beat his old coach on national television, last season's most dangerous receiver and a quarterback who took down the No. 1 team are all bunched within a few hundred points of each other. Here is where the race stands, and how to read the numbers before they move again.

Current Heisman Trophy odds

The table below is a snapshot across several sportsbooks as of September 19, 2026, shown as a range because books do not always agree on one player. These numbers move every week, so treat them as the current picture rather than a forecast.

The same odds, as a percentage

Converting each range into implied probability shows how far apart the books really are. Chambliss is the standout: one book prices him as the favorite while another has him outside the top five.

A separate probability-based market read from September 14 told a similar story from a different angle:

Why Mensah is the favorite

The numbers explain the price. Through two games, Mensah completed 91.1% of his passes for 8 touchdowns and no interceptions, including a 401-yard, 5-touchdown opener against Stanford. That is about as efficient a start as a Heisman campaign gets. The one thing the market is discounting is schedule strength: Miami's non-conference slate has been light, and voters want to see a front-runner hold up once ACC play gets tougher.

The rest of the field

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

His price jumped after Ole Miss's 32-24 win over Lane Kiffin's LSU, a game with enough storyline (Kiffin's first trip back to Oxford since leaving) to move the Heisman market along with the AP poll. Our Texas-Tennessee and Ole Miss-Florida preview covers Ole Miss's next game.

Arch Manning, Texas

Manning's line moved after Texas came back to beat then-No. 1 Ohio State, even though his own box score was modest: 195 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. The market is pricing the moment as much as the stats, betting that a dual-threat quarterback on the sport's most-watched team keeps producing. Texas's next big test is in our Week 4 preview.

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

The rare non-quarterback with a real shot. Sixteen catches for 315 yards and three touchdowns in two games (19.7 yards per catch) put him among the most productive players in the country. History is the hurdle: DeVonta Smith in 2020 was the first wide receiver to win in nearly three decades, and Travis Hunter's 2024 win came as a two-way player.

CJ Carr, Notre Dame

Carr's numbers have been solid rather than spectacular, so his odds will likely track Notre Dame's place in the playoff picture more than any single box score.

Malachi Toney, Miami

Mensah's own teammate, quietly posting big numbers (16 catches, 330 yards, 4 TD) in the same blowouts fueling Mensah's case. The two could end up splitting Miami's Heisman buzz down the stretch.

How Heisman odds work

Heisman odds are a futures bet: a wager that will not settle until the award is announced in December. The price reflects a projection over a whole season, not one game, and it shifts every week with performances, team records and playoff position. A player can be the favorite in September and fall out of the top five by November if his team stumbles, even with strong stats, because voters weigh team success heavily.

Heisman odds questions

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