Ole Miss vs Texas Prediction and Odds: Week 8 2026
Texas is a 3.5-point home favorite over Ole Miss for Saturday night's game in Austin, and the total sits at 53.5 at every major book as of Tuesday night, October 20, 2026. That makes the Ole Miss vs Texas prediction from the odds roughly Texas 28.5, Ole Miss 25, with Texas winning about 59% of the time after the margin is taken out. No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1) visits a No. 19 Texas team that has lost two straight by a combined six points.
Ole Miss vs Texas odds at every book
The board for No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas on Saturday, October 24, 2026 (7:30 PM ET, ABC, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium) has Texas -3.5 at all seven books we track. The prices tell the real story: books are asking -118 to -133 on Ole Miss +3.5, which means the next move is more likely down to Texas -3 than up to -4.
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (MISS / TEX) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | TEX -3.5 (-105) | +135 / -160 | 53.5 |
| bet365 | TEX -3.5 (-102) | +137 / -162 | 53.5 |
| DraftKings | TEX -3.5 (-107) | +136 / -162 | 53.5 |
| FanDuel | TEX -3.5 (-102) | +130 / -156 | 53.5 |
| Fanatics | TEX -3.5 (+100) | +135 / -160 | 53.5 |
| BetRivers | TEX -3.5 (-103) | +130 / -165 | 53.5 |
| Caesars | TEX -3.5 (-114) | +135 / -159 | 53.5 |
The opener was Texas -3.5 with a 52.5 total, so the spread has held while the total climbed a point. VegasInsider and CBS Sports showed Texas -3 on Tuesday morning, so the market is sitting right on the key number of 3. If you want a price you can sell before the final whistle, Kalshi's college football game contracts are another way to trade this one.
Ole Miss vs Texas prediction from the odds
Here is how the betting market turns into a projected score, step by step. This is the market read, not a pick.
How No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 19 Texas got here
Ole Miss is 5-1 under first-year coach Pete Golding, with the only loss a 52-28 game at Florida, and is coming off a 31-3 win over No. 13 Missouri. Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 1,676 yards and 14 touchdowns through six games, per Ole Miss. Texas beat Ohio State 24-23 on September 12 and briefly rose to No. 1 in the AP poll, but has since lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 at home to Florida, which scored 24 straight points and held the Longhorns to 272 yards. Arch Manning has about 1,298 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions; Florida sacked him five times.
| Game | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6 | Louisville (Nashville) | W 41-38 |
| Sep 12 | Charlotte | W 41-9 |
| Sep 19 | LSU | W 32-24 |
| Sep 26 | at Florida | L 28-52 |
| Oct 10 | at Vanderbilt | W 52-17 |
| Oct 17 | Missouri | W 31-3 |
| Game | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5 | Texas State | W 59-7 |
| Sep 12 | Ohio State | W 24-23 |
| Sep 19 | UTSA | W 30-6 |
| Sep 26 | at Tennessee | W 20-17 |
| Oct 10 | Oklahoma (Dallas) | L 24-27 |
| Oct 17 | Florida | L 24-27 |
Ole Miss vs Texas injury report
The SEC availability report for this game is not out yet (the first one usually comes midweek), so nothing below is an official game status. Statuses are as of October 20, 2026; recheck before kickoff.
| Player | Team | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Simmons | Texas | Edge, high ankle sprain (Oct 17) | Expected to miss Ole Miss game, week to week |
| Arch Manning | Texas | QB | Starter; Steve Sarkisian kept him as the starter after the Florida loss |
| Kewan Lacy | Ole Miss | RB, lower body in warmups Oct 17 | Played vs Missouri (122 yards) |
| SEC report | Both | Official availability | Not released yet |
Ole Miss vs Texas head-to-head
Ole Miss and Texas have met only eight times, and Texas leads the series 6-2 (6-1 counting Ole Miss's vacated 2013 win). This is their first meeting since 2013 and their first as SEC opponents.
| Date | Winner | Score | Site |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2013 | Ole Miss (later vacated) | 44-23 | Austin |
| Sep 15, 2012 | Texas | 66-31 | Oxford |
| Dec 17, 1966 | Texas | 19-0 | Bluebonnet Bowl, Houston |
| Jan 1, 1962 | Texas | 12-7 | Cotton Bowl, Dallas |
| Jan 1, 1958 | Ole Miss | 39-7 | Sugar Bowl, New Orleans |