Patriots vs. Bears Prediction: Thursday Night Football Odds, Spread and Implied Score

The Chicago Bears are 2.5-point home favorites over the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football (8:15 PM ET, Prime Video, Soldier Field), with the total at 50.5 at every book on SportsbookReview as of October 22, 2026. Both teams are 4-2. The Patriots arrive on a three-game winning streak with Drake Maye throwing three or more touchdown passes in each of them, and the Bears have Caleb Williams back after he missed three games with a hamstring injury. The line opened at Bears -2.5, touched -3.5 at one book, and sits at -2.5 at most of them, which makes the implied final about Bears 26.5, Patriots 24.

Patriots vs Bears odds at every book

Seven books on SportsbookReview price the game. Six have the Bears at -2.5; BetRivers is the outlier at -3.5 with a plus price on Chicago. The total is 50.5 everywhere, so there is nothing to shop on the number itself, only the juice. The moneyline runs from Patriots +130 to +138 and Bears -155 to -165. We confirmed the spread and total against Covers and the prediction markets (Kalshi had the Bears at 60 cents and the Patriots at 41 cents late Wednesday night, which matches a Bears -147 fair line).

The opener was Bears -2.5 and that is still the consensus. The move to -3.5 at BetRivers is the only sign of money pushing toward Chicago, and even there the price (+104) says the book is not fully behind the extra point. If you want the Patriots, +3.5 at BetRivers is worth the -127 price because it puts you on the right side of 3, the most common NFL margin. If you want the Bears, -2.5 at Fanatics (-125) is the cheapest way to stay under the key number.

Patriots vs Bears prediction from the odds

Here is how the betting market turns into a projected score, step by step. This is the market read, not a pick.

How the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears got here

Both teams are 4-2 with a loss to a division rival and one blowout defeat on the record. New England lost at Seattle and Jacksonville, then won three straight over Buffalo, Las Vegas and the Jets, scoring 29, 45 and 26. Chicago scored a franchise-record 59 in its opener at Carolina, lost 9-3 to Minnesota in the game where Caleb Williams was hurt, went 2-1 with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent starting, and beat Atlanta 31-23 last week with Williams back (30 of 36, 305 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions). Scores below are from the AP recaps and the teams' own game reports.

Patriots vs Bears injury report

Thursday games get their final game statuses on Wednesday, and both teams released them on October 21. New England ruled out five players, four of them in the secondary and offensive line: guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, lineman Ben Brown, and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada. Right tackle Morgan Moses, safeties Kevin Byard III and Craig Woodson and linebacker Christian Elliss are questionable. Wide receiver Romeo Doubs went on injured reserve on Monday with the shoulder injury he suffered in the first quarter against the Jets. Chicago ruled out running back Kyle Monangai (thumb and toe, third straight game) and linebacker Jack Sanborn (concussion), listed linebacker T.J. Edwards as doubtful with a hamstring, and has cornerback Tyrique Stevenson questionable. Guard Jonah Jackson practiced in full on Wednesday and carries no designation. Statuses come from the Patriots' official Week 7 report, the Boston Globe and the Bears' beat coverage; inactives are announced about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Patriots vs Bears head-to-head

The Patriots lead the regular-season series 11-4 and won the last meeting 19-3 at Soldier Field in November 2024, a game where New England sacked Caleb Williams nine times and Drake Maye threw for 184 yards in his rookie season. This is the second Maye vs Williams meeting. The Bears' most recent win in the series was a 33-14 Monday night result at Foxborough in 2022.

Patriots vs Bears betting questions