Texas vs LSU Prediction and Odds: Our Lean Is on the Longhorns
LSU is a 3.5 to 4.5-point favorite over Texas at seven books on SportsbookReview as of Friday morning, November 13, 2026, with the total at 45.5 to 46.5. Using LSU -4 and 46.5, the odds point to about LSU 25, Texas 21. Kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on ABC from Tiger Stadium.
Our lean is Texas +4.5. The Prediction Tracker median has LSU by only 1.9 and Massey Ratings has Texas winning by 2, so both systems sit on the Texas side of this number.
Texas vs LSU odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (TEX / LSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | LSU -4.5 (-110) | +150 / -185 | 46.5 |
| bet365 | LSU -4.5 (-105) | +157 / -187 | 46.5 |
| DraftKings | LSU -3.5 (-122) | +154 / -185 | 45.5 |
| FanDuel | LSU -4.5 (-111) | +146 / -176 | 46.5 |
| Fanatics | LSU -3.5 (-115) | +155 / -190 | 46 |
| BetRivers | LSU -3.5 (-117) | +143 / -180 | 46.5 |
| Caesars | LSU -3.5 (-130) | +152 / -182 | 45.5 |
Four books hang LSU -3.5 and three hang -4.5, and VegasInsider's consensus board sits at -4. If you like Texas, BetMGM, bet365 and FanDuel have the extra half point. If you like LSU, take -3.5 at Fanatics or BetRivers rather than paying -130 at Caesars.
The spread opened at LSU -4.5 on SportsbookReview, so the small move has been toward Texas. Lines move, so check the number before you bet.
Texas vs LSU prediction from the odds
That gives the market's prediction as LSU 25, Texas 21. Our own projection is closer to even, because both rating systems we track disagree with the market by two or more points.
| Source | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Market | LSU by 3.5 to 4.5 | 46.5 |
| Prediction Tracker median | LSU by 1.9 (std dev 3.3) | Not listed |
| Massey Ratings | Texas 28, LSU 26 | 54 |
The tracker median and Massey both land on the Texas side of the spread, which is the agreement we look for. Massey's 54-point total is also well above the market's 46.5, though a total needs more than one system to clear our bar.
How Texas and LSU got here
Texas is 7-2. Arch Manning has said he is treating the trip to his home state like any other game, per WAFB, and this is the Longhorns' first visit to Baton Rouge since joining the SEC.
LSU is 6-3 and lost 31-13 to Alabama at home on November 7. Coach Lane Kiffin called that loss unacceptable on Monday, per WAFB, and Sam Leavitt started at quarterback for the Tigers in that game, per the AP.
Texas vs LSU injury report
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning, QB | Texas | Starting; no designation reported |
| Sam Leavitt, QB | LSU | Started Nov 7 vs Alabama (AP) |
The SEC posts availability reports each night from Wednesday through Saturday. Neither starting quarterback carried a reported designation when we checked on Friday morning, November 13; recheck the final report Saturday before kickoff.
LEAN: Texas @ LSU, Texas +4.5 (-115) at FanDuel, as of Nov. 13, 2026, 11 AM ET.
Why: the Prediction Tracker median (LSU by 1.9) and Massey (Texas by 2) both sit on the Texas side, and our projection is close to a pick'em. Main risk: a night game in Tiger Stadium, and LSU's defense holding Texas under its 30.5 points per game.
Situation: LSU is at home after a loss to Alabama; Texas travels for a night kickoff. Take +4.5 rather than +3.5, since the lean depends on the extra half point.
This lean is a free editorial read and is not counted in our official win/loss record. We may also have a premium play on this game. A lean here is our editorial read of the market and can differ from the premium pick. Our free plays are on the free picks page, and our full card is on premium picks.
For the full Saturday board, see our college football Week 11 preview. Other games we broke down this week: USC vs Indiana, Missouri vs Georgia and Michigan vs Oregon.