2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Leads the Race
Two weeks into the season, the NFL MVP race has a clear front-runner and a crowded chase pack behind him. Josh Allen has been close to flawless, a handful of quarterbacks have played their way into the conversation, and one early contender has already been knocked out by injury. Here are the latest NFL MVP odds, what is driving them, and how to read a board that will look different by November.
Latest NFL MVP odds
The two books agree on the favorite but not on the order behind him. DraftKings has Jackson and Burrow tied for second; bet365 has Mahomes and Purdy there instead. Converting each price range into implied probability shows where they split:
Show the full DraftKings MVP board (21 players)
| # | Player | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | +275 | 26.7% |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | +750 | 11.8% |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | +750 | 11.8% |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | +850 | 10.5% |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes | +1200 | 7.7% |
| 6 | Trevor Lawrence | +1300 | 7.1% |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | +1400 | 6.7% |
| 8 | Drake Maye | +2000 | 4.8% |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford | +2200 | 4.3% |
| 10 | Jalen Hurts | +2200 | 4.3% |
| 11 | Jordan Love | +2800 | 3.4% |
| 12 | Jaxson Dart | +3500 | 2.8% |
| 13 | Jared Goff | +4000 | 2.4% |
| 14 | Bo Nix | +4000 | 2.4% |
| 15 | Tyler Shough | +4000 | 2.4% |
| 16 | Justin Herbert | +5000 | 2.0% |
| 17 | Jahmyr Gibbs | +6000 | 1.6% |
| 18 | Bryce Young | +7000 | 1.4% |
| 19 | CJ Stroud | +7500 | 1.3% |
| 20 | Derrick Henry | +8000 | 1.2% |
| 21 | Geno Smith | +9000 | 1.1% |
Why Josh Allen is the favorite
Allen won the MVP in 2024, and his start to 2026 has been even louder. Through two games he had thrown for 582 yards, run for 92 more and accounted for nine touchdowns without a turnover, including three passing and two rushing scores in Week 2. Buffalo opened 2-0 with wins over Houston and Detroit. At bet365, his price shortened from +450 to +300 after that Week 2 performance.
The biggest movers
| Player | Before | After Week 2 | Why it moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +450 | +300 | Five total touchdowns in Week 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +1600 | +800 | Strong play in his return from a torn ACL |
| Brock Purdy | +1400 | +800 | Near-perfect 20 of 22 day in Week 2 |
| Caleb Williams | +700 | Out of the race | Hamstring injury in Week 2 |
The rest of the contenders
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson
Burrow has the Bengals unbeaten with 461 yards and two touchdown passes through two games, efficient more than explosive. Jackson, a two-time MVP, sits right alongside him at both books. Both play in the AFC North, where head-to-head games later in the season can swing the race directly.
Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes
Purdy has five passing touchdowns and a rushing score through two weeks. Mahomes, back from a torn ACL, saw his price cut in half at bet365. Either one stacking wins in October would tighten the gap on Allen quickly.
Matthew Stafford, the defending winner
Stafford won the 2025 MVP in the closest vote since 2003, edging Drake Maye with 24 first-place votes to Maye's 23 (366 points to 361). He opened this season with a 327-yard, four-touchdown day in Week 2, yet sits around +1800 to +2200, a sign the market is waiting for more.
How MVP odds work
MVP odds are a futures bet: the award is decided by a media vote after the regular season, so nothing settles until then. Quarterbacks dominate because voters reward the most productive player on a winning team, and team record matters as much as stats. That is why the board shifts every week with results and injuries.
Even the 21 names on this DraftKings board add up to about 118% implied probability, before counting every other player in the league. That built-in margin is much larger than on a single game, which is why comparing prices matters so much on futures. More on that in our guide to the vig.
NFL MVP odds questions
Who is the favorite to win NFL MVP in 2026?
Who won the 2025 NFL MVP?
When is the NFL MVP announced?
Has a non-quarterback won MVP recently?
Do MVP odds change during the season?
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