Cavaliers vs Thunder Prediction: Odds, Injuries and Our Number for Wednesday
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a 3.5-point home favorite over the Cleveland Cavaliers for Wednesday night's rematch at Paycom Center, with a total of 226.5 to 227.5, as of Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 12:15 PM ET. The line implies a final around Thunder 115, Cavaliers 111.5. Oklahoma City won the first game of the two-game set 117-112 in Cleveland on Monday behind 43 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and does it without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace. Our number has the game closer to even than the market, Massey has the Thunder by 7, and with the two reads split we have no lean. Here is the full Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction from the odds, the ratings and the injury reports.
Cavaliers vs Thunder odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (CLE / OKC) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Thunder -3.5 (-107), Cavaliers +3.5 (-113) | +131 / -155 | 227.5 |
| FanDuel | Thunder -3.5 (-110) | +126 / -148 | 227.5 (Under -114) |
| BetMGM | Thunder -3.5 (-110) | +125 / -155 | 226.5 (Over -115) |
| Opener (SportsbookReview) | Thunder -2.5 (-115) | 226.5 |
Lines are from SportsbookReview's odds board and The Odds API's DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM feeds. Every book on the SBR board has moved from -2.5 to -3.5, and one has -4.5, with 69% of SBR's tickets and 60% of Action Network's bets on the Thunder. The total opened 226.5 and has split: 226.5 at BetMGM and most of the board, 227.5 at FanDuel and DraftKings, with 56% of tickets on the Over. The best Cavaliers number is +4.5 at the one book that moved there; the best Thunder price is -3.5 (-107) at DraftKings. Our free plays for the day are on our free picks page.
Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction from the odds
The market says Thunder 115, Cavaliers 111.5. Our own number, built from each team's points per possession on offense and defense (TeamRankings, through Monday) at the two teams' average pace of about 104 possessions, with 2.5 points for home court, comes out Cavaliers 114.1, Thunder 113.3. Cleveland scores 1.130 points per possession to Oklahoma City's 1.063, and the Thunder defense (1.061 allowed) is only a little better than Cleveland's (1.096), so the raw numbers favor the road team before home court and favor Oklahoma City by less than a point after it. Massey Ratings sees it differently: Thunder 117, Cavaliers 110, a 69% Oklahoma City win, and ranks the Thunder third and the Cavaliers 13th.
The gap is about what the two methods weigh. Our number is seven games of this season's efficiency, three of them Thunder wins with Williams and Wallace on the floor, so it still carries some of the healthy roster. Massey blends in prior seasons, including the 2025 title run and last spring's trip to Game 7 of the West finals, and that history is why it has the Thunder seven points better. Neither read is on the Cavaliers by enough to call it a play with a model against it, and neither is on the Thunder by enough to lay 3.5 against our own number. We pass.
How the Cavaliers and Thunder got here
| Team | Record | Last three | PPG / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 4-3 | L 111-114 @ ATL, W 136-111 @ MIL, L 112-117 vs OKC | 119.7 / 116.1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 5-2 | L 96-120 @ DAL, L 98-119 @ HOU, W 117-112 @ CLE | 108.0 / 107.7 |
Monday's first meeting was a one-possession game for most of the fourth quarter: eight ties and eight lead changes before Gilgeous-Alexander made his fourth 3-pointer with 32.6 seconds left, then Ajay Mitchell's two free throws with 15.4 seconds left made it a two-possession game. Gilgeous-Alexander took 35 shots, the most by any player in the first two weeks of the season, and made 14 of them with 11 of 12 free throws. Mitchell scored 20 and Isaiah Hartenstein had 14 rebounds. It was Oklahoma City's first win after road losses by 24 at Dallas and 21 at Houston.
Cleveland got 17 points each from Donovan Mitchell (with 11 assists) and rookie Meleek Thomas, making his first NBA start, 16 from Evan Mobley and 14 each from James Harden and Jarrett Allen. The Cavaliers shot 9 of 17 from three in the third quarter to get back into it and opened the fourth on an 18-9 run, but it was their first home loss in four games. Cleveland's offense is sixth in the league in points per possession through seven games; its defense is 17th. Oklahoma City is 21st on offense and 11th on defense, and the offense has fallen with every absence.
Cavaliers vs Thunder injury report
| Player | Team | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren | OKC | Out (8 to 10 weeks) | Small patellar tendon tear, right knee; announced Oct 30 |
| Jalen Williams | OKC | Out (reevaluated late season) | Fractured fibula, dislocated ankle; surgery Oct 28 |
| Cason Wallace | OKC | Out (reevaluated late season) | Torn labrum; shoulder surgery Oct 30 |
| Nikola Topic | OKC | Out | Back; out until at least Nov 13 per CBS |
| Thomas Sorber | OKC | Out | Knee; out until at least Nov 13 per CBS |
| Jaylin Williams | OKC | Game-time decision | Back; started Monday |
| Jaylon Tyson | CLE | Out | Right ankle sprain; out until at least Nov 6 per CBS |
| Peyton Watson | CLE | Out | Right hamstring; out until at least Nov 6 per CBS |
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | CLE | Out | Back; out until at least Nov 16 per CBS |
The Thunder are missing three starters from the 2025 title team. Williams and Wallace were both hurt in the October 25 game against the Clippers and both had surgery that week, per the team and ESPN. Holmgren felt knee discomfort the same day, saw specialists and had a biological treatment on the small tear on Friday, October 30; the team put his timeline at 8 to 10 weeks. Monday's starters were Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams, Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams, with rookies Ben Stirtz and Alex Mara and Jared McCain in the rotation. Cleveland is closer to whole: Tyson and Watson are listed out through at least Friday, and Thomas started in Tyson's place on Monday. Status comes from CBS Sports' injury page and the team reports as of Wednesday afternoon; the NBA's final report lands about 90 minutes before the 8:00 PM tip, and a change to Jaylin Williams' status or to Cleveland's wings is a reason to recheck the line.
For the other side of the NBA week, see our NBA power rankings for where both teams sit by title price, and our NBA win totals page for the eight wins the market has taken off Oklahoma City's season number. Our other game breakdowns this week are Senators vs Sabres tonight and Michigan vs UConn on Friday.