Florida vs Texas Prediction and Odds: Week 7 2026
Texas lost its No. 1 ranking on the last play in Dallas, and now it has to turn around and face a Florida team that has lost two straight. No. 7 Texas is a 9.5 to 10-point favorite over Florida in Austin, as of Sunday night, October 11, 2026, with the total at 52.5 to 53.5 depending on the book. Turn the DraftKings numbers into a score and the betting market's Florida vs Texas prediction is Texas 31, Florida 21.5.
Florida vs Texas odds at every book
Every major book has Texas between -9.5 and -10, as of Sunday night, October 11, 2026. The Las Vegas board on VegasInsider runs a little wider, from -9.5 to -10.5. Fanatics has the cheapest Florida moneyline at +310, and the total ranges from 52.5 to 53.5. Compare where you have accounts on our sportsbooks page.
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (FLA / TEX) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | TEX -9.5 | +290 / -375 | 52.5 |
| bet365 | TEX -10 | +300 / -380 | 52.5 |
| DraftKings | TEX -9.5 | +295 / -375 | 52.5 |
| FanDuel | TEX -9.5 | +290 / -375 | 52.5 |
| Fanatics | TEX -10 | +310 / -400 | 53 |
| BetRivers | TEX -9.5 | +280 / -375 | 53.5 |
| Caesars | TEX -10 | +295 / -380 | Not posted |
Florida vs Texas prediction from the betting odds
The number has held almost exactly where it opened, Texas -9.5 with a 52.5 total, even after Texas lost a game it was favored to win. That tells you the market did not mark Texas down much for a three-point loss in which it outgained Oklahoma 382 to 238. The half point between -9.5 and -10 is the one to watch, because 10 is a key number in football. A 10-point Texas win covers -9.5, pushes at -10 and loses for anyone holding Florida +9.5, so the books split between those two numbers matters.
How Florida and Texas got here
Texas is 4-1 and fell from No. 1 to No. 7 after a 27-24 loss to Oklahoma on Saturday, decided by Tate Sandell's 47-yard field goal on the final play. Florida started 4-0 under first-year coach Jon Sumrall, then lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina and dropped out of the AP poll.
| Date | Florida | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | W 66-21 vs FAU | W 59-7 vs Texas State |
| Week 2 | W 52-3 vs Campbell | W 24-23 vs Ohio State |
| Week 3 | W 44-39 at Auburn | W 30-6 vs UTSA |
| Week 4 | W 52-28 vs Ole Miss | W 20-17 at Tennessee |
| Week 5 | L 17-45 at Missouri | Bye |
| Week 6 | L 19-38 vs South Carolina | L 24-27 vs Oklahoma (Dallas) |
Florida: the passing game is there, the defense is not
Florida has given up 83 points in its last two games. Bailey Stockton caught 8 passes for 127 yards and a 59-yard touchdown against South Carolina, and Jadan Baugh ran 15 times for 59 yards and a score, but the defense could not keep pace. Receiver Vernell Brown III sat out the South Carolina loss with a knee injury.
Texas: Manning after the Red River loss
Arch Manning went 19 of 31 for about 260 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Oklahoma, and Cam Coleman caught 5 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. The yardage edge was big, the turnovers were the difference, and Texas comes home with a week to clean it up.
Florida and Texas injury report
The SEC's first Week 7 availability report comes out Wednesday night, so treat this as early and subject to change. Statuses below are confirmed by at least three outlets as of October 11.
| Player | Team | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vernell Brown III | Florida | WR | Knee; missed South Carolina game, Week 7 status not announced |
Florida vs Texas series history
Texas leads the all-time series 3-1-1. These teams met in each of the last two seasons: Texas won 49-17 in Austin in 2024, and Florida won 29-21 in Gainesville last October.
| Date | Site | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Gainesville | Florida 29, Texas 21 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Austin | Texas 49, Florida 17 |
Florida vs Texas questions
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