NFL Week 4 Recap 2026: Bad Beats, Underdogs and Key Injuries
Kansas City led Las Vegas by 11 with under two minutes to play. Then Kirk Cousins found Brock Bowers, the Raiders added two, and anyone holding Chiefs -3.5 lost by a half point. That was NFL Week 4 in one drive: five underdogs won outright, two backdoor covers landed in the final 1:46, and a 21-point lead in Seattle ended in a push. This NFL Week 4 recap grades every Sunday final against the closing line.
Scores were checked against FOX Sports and ESPN. Closing lines are FOX Sports' posted numbers, with the DraftKings close (via ESPN) shown as a range where the two differed. This covers all 14 Sunday games, including Sunday night's Lions at Panthers. Thursday's Browns-Steelers game and Monday's Saints-Falcons game are not included. For how the week set up, see our NFL Week 4 preview.
NFL Week 4 scores against the spread and total
| Game | Final | Close | ATS | Total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts vs Commanders (London) | Colts 30, Commanders 13 | IND -4.5 | Colts cover | 46.5 | Under 43 |
| Patriots at Bills | Patriots 29, Bills 26 | BUF -7 | NE wins outright | 49.5 | Over 55 |
| Jets at Bears | Bears 23, Jets 12 | CHI -3.5 | Bears cover | 43.5 | Under 35 |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Jaguars 22, Bengals 17 | CIN -2.5 | JAX wins outright | 51.5 to 52.5 | Under 39 |
| Cardinals at Giants | Giants 36, Cardinals 24 | ARI -2.5 | NYG wins outright | 43.5 to 44 | Over 60 |
| Rams at Eagles | Rams 24, Eagles 20 | LAR -3.5 to -4.5 | Split by book | 42.5 to 43.5 | Over 44 |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Packers 17, Buccaneers 14 | GB -2.5 (-3 at some books) | GB covers -2.5, pushes -3 | 38.5 to 39.5 | Under 31 |
| Titans at Ravens | Ravens 24, Titans 18 | BAL -11.5 | Titans cover | 41.5 to 42.5 | Split by book |
| Cowboys at Texans | Cowboys 34, Texans 30 | HOU -3 | DAL wins outright | 48.5 | Over 64 |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Vikings 15, Dolphins 10 | MIN -9.5 to -10 | Dolphins cover | 38.5 | Under 25 |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Chiefs 30, Raiders 27 | KC -3.5 to -4.5 | Raiders cover | 47.5 | Over 57 |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Seahawks 30, Chargers 23 | SEA -7 | Push | 42.5 to 43.5 | Over 53 |
| Broncos at 49ers | 49ers 24, Broncos 14 | SF -3 | 49ers cover | 48.5 | Under 38 |
| Lions at Panthers (SNF) | Panthers 32, Lions 26 | DET -3.5 to -4.5 | CAR wins outright | 52.5 | Over 58 |
The number mattered more than usual. The Rams won by four, which covered -3.5 but lost at -4.5. The Packers won by three, a cover at -2.5 and a push at -3. Ravens-Titans landed on 42, an over at 41.5 and an under at 42.5. Three half-point decisions in one afternoon is the case for shopping more than one sportsbook before you bet.
The NFL Week 4 bad beats, in order of pain
A bad beat is a bet that looked like a winner late and lost in the final minutes, often on a score that did not change who won the game. Week 4 had at least eight worth retelling.
| Game | The moment | What it flipped |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs at Raiders | Kansas City led 30-19 inside the final two minutes. Kirk Cousins hit Brock Bowers for a 20-yard touchdown with 1:46 left and Las Vegas added the two-point try. | An 11-point Chiefs cover became a 3-point Raiders cover at +3.5 or +4.5. A 23-point game through three quarters finished at 57, over 47.5. |
| Titans at Ravens | Cam Ward threw a 3-yard touchdown to Wan'Dale Robinson with 1:12 left, then hit Gunnar Helm for two. Baltimore led 24-10 before the drive. | Ravens -11.5 went from a 14-point cover to a loss. The total went from 34 to 42: over at DraftKings' 41.5, under by a half point at 42.5. |
| Rams at Eagles | Kyren Williams scored from 7 yards out with 1:10 left after Philadelphia passed up a chip-shot field goal that would have made it 23-10. | The total jumped from 37 to 44, killing Under 43.5 by a half point. Rams -3.5 cashed, Rams -4.5 lost by a half point. |
| Cowboys at Texans | Houston led 30-26 after Woody Marks scored with about 2:30 left. CeeDee Lamb caught a 12-yard touchdown with 40 seconds to go. | Texans -3 and the Houston moneyline were winning with under a minute left. Dallas +3 cashed outright. |
| Patriots at Bills | Buffalo led 26-21 when Efton Chism made a one-handed touchdown catch with 1:50 left. Josh Allen then threw an interception on Buffalo's final drive. | New England +7 cashed outright, and the touchdown plus two-point try took a 47-point game over 49.5. |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Seattle led 27-6 in the third quarter. The Chargers outscored Seattle 17-3 from there and pulled within 30-23 with 2:14 left. | Seahawks -7 bettors watched a 21-point lead turn into a push. Seahawks -6.5 still cashed. The rally pushed the game over 42.5 and 43.5. |
| Broncos at 49ers | Bo Nix pulled Denver within 17-14 with 4:05 left. George Kittle took a screen 56 yards for a touchdown with 2:15 left. | Broncos +3 was live until the final three minutes. 49ers -3 cashed by seven. |
| Cardinals at Giants | Arizona reached the red zone on the final play needing a touchdown. Deonte Banks intercepted Jacoby Brissett and returned it 98 yards. | Cardinals -2.5 and the Arizona moneyline lost on the last snap. The Giants took sole possession of first in the NFC East. |
Chiefs at Raiders: the backdoor that beat 4.5
Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns, and the second came one play after Las Vegas fumbled a kickoff, putting Kansas City up 30-19. The Chiefs were covering every number on the board. The Raiders' late touchdown and two-point conversion made it 30-27, so Raiders +3.5 and +4.5 both cashed. The game was 13-10 Raiders entering the fourth quarter, and the two teams scored 34 points in the final 15 minutes, so Under 47.5 bettors lost too.
Titans at Ravens: a 14-point cover gone in 72 seconds
Baltimore led 24-7 at halftime, but Lamar Jackson hurt his ankle on the final snap of the first half and Tyler Huntley played the second half in the rain. The Ravens did not score again. Tennessee's touchdown and two-point conversion with 1:12 left took the margin from 14 to 6, so Ravens -11.5 lost. Baltimore recovered the onside kick, but the damage was done.
Rams at Eagles: the fourth-down call that cost Under bettors
Philadelphia led 20-10 in the fourth quarter and went for it on fourth down instead of kicking a chip-shot field goal. It failed. The Rams drove 98 yards for a touchdown with 3:59 left, then Kyren Williams scored again with 1:10 to go. The Eagles went 0 for 12 on third down and gained 172 yards. Under 43.5 lost on that last touchdown, and Rams -4.5 lost by a half point.
Chargers at Seahawks: 21 points up, graded a push
Seattle led 27-6 in the third quarter and won 30-23. A Chargers field goal with 2:14 left made it exactly seven, and a Justin Herbert strip-sack ended the last drive. The Seahawks drew a franchise-record 150 penalty yards on 14 flags, which helped keep the door open.
Which underdogs won outright in NFL Week 4?
The Dolphins (+9.5 to +10), Raiders (+3.5 to +4.5) and Titans (+11.5) covered without winning. Miami's cover came with help. With the Vikings up 15-10, T.J. Hockenson slid down short of the goal line on a third-down catch to run out the clock instead of scoring. A touchdown there would have made it 21-10 or 22-10 and sunk Dolphins +9.5 and +10.
What NFL Week 4 meant for bettors
- Late variance was the story. At least five spreads or totals changed hands in the final 2:30 (Chiefs-Raiders, Titans-Ravens, Rams-Eagles, Cowboys-Texans and Patriots-Bills). That is not something you can handicap away. It is why a single game should never be a big share of a bankroll (see our bankroll management guide).
- Quarterback trouble drove the unders. Washington lost Marcus Mariota on its second drive and finished with its third quarterback, Tampa Bay started undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for Baker Mayfield, and Miami's Malik Willis threw for 85 yards. All three games went under.
- Defense held up in the late window. Dolphins-Vikings finished 25 points under a 38.5 total, and 49ers-Broncos 38 under 48.5. The Vikings are 4-0 without a touchdown in their last two games: Will Reichard kicked five field goals.
- Penalties shaped two games. Referee Alex Moore's crew called 24 penalties for 244 yards in Jaguars-Bengals, and Seahawks-Chargers combined for 30 flags. Officiating crews are a fair input when you handicap totals.
How Guaranteed Sport Picks did on our first official Sunday
Week 4 was the first NFL Sunday on our official record. Our premium plays went 5-2 and our free plays went 1-0-1. Here is every play we posted, graded at the number we released.
| Game | Our pick | Type | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts vs Commanders | Colts -4.5 | Premium | Win |
| Patriots at Bills | Patriots +7 | Premium | Win |
| Jets at Bears | Bears -3.5 | Premium | Win |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Bengals -2.5 | Premium | Loss |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Packers -3 | Free | Push |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Raiders +4.5 | Premium | Win |
| Broncos at 49ers | Broncos +3 | Premium | Loss |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Under 38.5 | Free | Win |
| Lions at Panthers (SNF) | Panthers +3.5 | Premium | Win |
The Bengals loss came down to a fourth-down stop at the Jacksonville 12 with 50 seconds left, and Denver was within three points until George Kittle's touchdown with 2:15 left. The Raiders cover broke our way, on a touchdown and two-point try with 1:46 left. That is how close NFL Sundays run. Free picks are editorial and are not counted in our official win/loss record.
Thank you to everyone who bought a pick or a package on our first official Sunday. We have been doing this since 1999, and having you with us on day one means a lot. The Week 5 card starts with Thursday night, and you can find it on the premium picks page.
Key NFL Week 4 injuries to watch for Week 5
These players left Sunday's games, per postgame reporting on October 4, 2026. Most have no official status or timeline yet. Check Wednesday's injury reports before betting Week 5, because quarterback news moves lines the most.
| Player | Team | Pos | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | QB | Ankle, hurt on the last snap of the first half. Did not return. |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | QB | Knee. Coach Dan Quinn said it looks like an MCL injury. Jayden Daniels was already out, so rookie Athan Kaliakmanis finished the game. |
| Saquon Barkley | Eagles | RB | Right hamstring. Replacement Tank Bigsby also needed help off late. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | WR | Concussion in the second quarter. |
| Tee Higgins | Bengals | WR | Groin in the fourth quarter, after 11 catches for 151 yards. |
| Patrick Surtain II | Broncos | CB | Ankle. Fellow starter Riley Moss (ribs) also left. |
| Rashee Rice | Chiefs | WR | Hamstring in the first quarter. Did not return. |
| Tyquan Thornton | Chiefs | WR | Left ankle, carted off after a 55-yard catch. |
| Edgerrin Cooper | Packers | LB | Achilles, carted off in the third quarter. |
| DJ Moore | Bills | WR | Shoulder, late in the first half. DT Ed Oliver (knee) also left. |
| Joe Alt | Chargers | T | Neck. Did not return. WR Ladd McConkey aggravated a foot injury. |
Several of these injuries affect Week 5 games right away. Baltimore plays at Atlanta on Sunday night, Washington hosts the Giants, the Eagles face Jacksonville in London, Cincinnati visits Miami, and Denver visits the Chargers. Kansas City is on a bye.
An honest lesson from Week 4
It is tempting to say Raiders bettors "knew" the backdoor was coming, or that the Eagles' fourth-down call was obviously wrong. Neither is true at the moment the bet is made. What you can control is the price. A half point decided Rams-Eagles, Packers-Bucs and the Ravens total on the same afternoon, and taking the best available number is the edge that holds up over a season. Our guides to closing line value and NFL key numbers go deeper.
NFL Week 4 questions we got asked
Which underdogs won outright in NFL Week 4 2026?+
Did favorites or underdogs cover more in NFL Week 4?+
What was the worst bad beat of NFL Week 4?+
Which NFL teams are 4-0 after Week 4 2026?+
Which NFL teams are 0-4 after Week 4 2026?+
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