Texas vs Oklahoma Prediction and Odds: Longhorns Favored by 8.5 in Dallas
No. 1 Texas is an 8 to 8.5-point favorite over Oklahoma in the 2026 Red River game at the Cotton Bowl, with a total of just 39.5, as of Tuesday morning, October 6, 2026. Put those two numbers together and the betting market's Texas vs Oklahoma prediction is Texas 24, Oklahoma 15.5. Texas is 4-0 and No. 1 in the AP poll. Oklahoma is 2-2. Both teams are coming off a bye.
Texas vs Oklahoma odds at every book
Here is the full board for Texas vs Oklahoma on Saturday, October 10, 2026, 3:30 PM ET, at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, as of Tuesday, October 6, about 9 AM ET. Prices are from SportsbookReview's odds board and were cross-checked against the lines listed by FOX Sports and CBS Sports. Shop the number before you bet: our sportsbook comparison shows where to look.
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (TEX / OU) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | TEX -8 | -325 / +260 | 39.5 |
| bet365 | TEX -8.5 | -320 / +260 | 39.5 |
| DraftKings | TEX -8.5 | see note | see note |
| FanDuel | TEX -8.5 | -330 / +260 | 39.5 |
| Fanatics | TEX -8.5 | -340 / +270 | 39.5 |
| BetRivers | TEX -8.5 | -375 / +275 | 39.5 |
| Caesars | TEX -8.5 | -319 / +255 | 39.5 |
DraftKings' Red River moneyline (-218 / +180) and total (48.5) on SportsbookReview's board have been out of line with every other book since Sunday, so we leave them out. BetMGM is the only book at -8.
Texas vs Oklahoma prediction from the betting odds
A spread and a total together imply a final score. The favorite's number is (total + spread) / 2, so Texas comes out at (39.5 + 8.5) / 2 = 24 and Oklahoma at 15.5. That is a market projection, not our pick. The line has drifted around since it was posted: SportsbookReview's lookahead opener had Texas -6.5, DraftKings had -9.5 on Sunday morning, FOX Sports listed -7.5 on Monday, and six of seven books sit at -8.5 on Tuesday. The total has dropped from the low 40s to 39.5, which tells you the market expects a low-scoring game.
Why so low? Both defenses have been strong. Texas has allowed 13.3 points and 4.2 yards per play in four games; Oklahoma has allowed 16.0 points and 4.25 yards per play, according to cfbstats. Oklahoma's offense has been the problem: 22.0 points per game and 2.9 yards per carry on the ground. For how a total is set and why 39.5 is a meaningful number, see our guide to over/under bets.
How Texas and Oklahoma got here
Texas has won all four of its games, three of them by 24 points or fewer after a 59-7 opener. The headline is the 24-23 win over then-No. 1 Ohio State on September 12, when the Longhorns came back from 20 points down in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma has lost both of its games against Power Four opponents, at Michigan and at Georgia.
| Date | Texas (4-0) | Oklahoma (2-2) |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 4-5 | W 59-7 vs Texas State | W 51-0 vs UTEP (Fri) |
| Sept 12 | W 24-23 vs No. 1 Ohio State | L 17-10 at Michigan |
| Sept 19 | W 30-6 vs UTSA | W 14-6 vs New Mexico |
| Sept 26 | W 20-17 at Tennessee | L 41-13 at No. 2 Georgia |
| Oct 3 | Bye | Bye |
Texas: Arch Manning and a defense allowing 13 points a game
Arch Manning is 73 of 115 for 862 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions through four games, per the Texas cumulative stats and cfbstats. He was sacked six times in the 20-17 win at Tennessee. Ryan Wingo leads Texas in receiving (19 catches, 239 yards) and Cam Coleman has 4 touchdown catches. Running back Hollywood Smothers (198 yards) sat out the Tennessee game as a precaution with a lower-leg injury. Texas is scoring 33.3 points per game and allowing 13.3, under coach Steve Sarkisian in his sixth season.
Oklahoma: John Mateer and a run game that has not shown up
John Mateer has completed 72 of 109 passes for 883 yards, 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, per cfbstats and RotoWire. Brent Venables said "John's our starting quarterback" after reports the staff discussed a halftime change at Georgia, per NewsOn6 and SI. Oklahoma lost four turnovers at Georgia, which turned 17 of them into points, and trailed 28-0 at the half. The Sooners average 2.9 yards per carry, which is a big reason the total sits at 39.5.
Texas vs Oklahoma series history
Texas leads the Red River series 65-51-5 through 2025, per the series record kept on Wikipedia and Yahoo Sports' series history. Texas has won the last two meetings, 23-6 in 2025 and 34-3 in 2024. Oklahoma won 34-30 in 2023. Saturday is the 122nd meeting.
| Year | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas | 23-6 |
| 2024 | Texas | 34-3 |
| 2023 | Oklahoma | 34-30 |
Texas and Oklahoma injuries to watch
The first SEC availability report for this game comes out Wednesday evening, October 7. Until then, these are the latest statuses from coaches and beat reporting as of Tuesday, October 6. Treat anything not marked official as unresolved.
| Player | Team | Status as of Oct 6 |
|---|---|---|
| Hollywood Smothers, RB | Texas | Lower leg. Sat out at Tennessee; Sarkisian said he expects him to be fine for OU. Not official. |
| Cam Coleman, WR | Texas | Bruised tailbone at Tennessee, described as nothing serious. Expected available. |
| David Stone, DT | Oklahoma | Knee (dislocated kneecap in practice). Was questionable for Georgia; status for Texas unresolved. |
| Trell Harris, WR | Oklahoma | Out against Georgia after an organ laceration at Michigan. No return date given. |
| John Mateer, QB | Oklahoma | Healthy and confirmed as the starter by Venables. |
Statuses can change before kickoff. We will update this table after the official SEC availability reports.
This page is a market read, not a pick. If you want our handicapped side for the Red River game, it comes through premium picks, with Pay After You Win: you are charged only on a win. Free plays are posted on the free picks page.
Texas vs Oklahoma questions
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