Bills vs Vikings Prediction: Odds, Carson Wentz and Our Read for Monday Night
The Buffalo Bills are a 3.5-point road favorite over the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football at U.S. Bank Stadium, with a total of 44.5, as of Friday, November 6, 2026, 11:45 AM ET. The line implies a final around Bills 24, Vikings 20.5. It is a meeting of 6-1 teams, the highest-scoring offense in the league against the stingiest defense, and the Vikings will play it without Kyler Murray: he is out with a hamstring strain and Carson Wentz starts. Our number, Massey and the Prediction Tracker all have the game closer to a pick'em than the market does, but every one of those reads was built with Murray at quarterback, so we have no lean. Here is the full Bills vs Vikings prediction from the odds, the models and the injury reports.
Bills vs Vikings odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (BUF / MIN) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bills -3.5 (-105) | -175 / +145 | 44.5 |
| bet365 | Bills -3.5 (+102) | -176 / +148 | 44.5 |
| FanDuel | Bills -3.5 (-102) | -174 / +146 | 44.5 |
| Fanatics | Bills -3.5 (+100) | -175 / +145 | 44.5 |
| Caesars | Bills -3.5 (-108) | -176 / +149 | 44.5 |
| Opener (SportsbookReview) | Bills -3 | -150 / +125 | 44.5 |
Lines are from SportsbookReview's odds board as of Friday morning, cross-checked against VegasInsider's Week 9 page (updated Thursday, 11:36 PM: Bills -3 at -118, 44.5, -180/+150) and Action Network, which shows the lookahead opener at Bills -3 and 67% of bets on Buffalo. The DraftKings column on the SBR board has been stale this season, so it is left out of the ranges. The best Vikings number is +3.5 at -102 or better at bet365, Fanatics and FanDuel; the key number is 3, so Bills -3.5 at plus money is the shape the market has settled on. Our free plays for the week are on our free picks page.
Bills vs Vikings prediction from the odds
The market says Bills 24, Vikings 20.5. Our own number starts from each team's yards per play on offense and defense (TeamRankings, through Week 8), projects plays and points for each side, blends that with the scoring averages, adds 2.5 for home field and adjusts for schedule strength. It comes out Vikings 24.3, Bills 23.5, Minnesota by 0.4 after the schedule adjustment, with a total of 47.8. Massey Ratings projects 23-23 (Minnesota 50%, Buffalo 49%) with a total of 46.5, and ranks the Bills first and the Vikings second in the league. The Prediction Tracker's 55-system median is Bills by 0.7 (average 0.37, standard deviation 3.72), with Minnesota covering 54.8% of the time.
| Read | Margin | Total | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Bills -3.5 | 44.5 | SportsbookReview, 11:45 AM ET |
| Our number | Vikings +0.4 | 47.8 | Yards per play, SOS-adjusted, +2.5 home |
| Massey Ratings | Pick (23-23) | 46.5 | masseyratings.com; BUF No. 1, MIN No. 2 |
| Prediction Tracker median | Bills -0.7 | n/a | 55 systems, sd 3.72, MIN cover 55% |
On paper this is the kind of spot we look for: three reads within a point of even and a 3.5-point line on the other side, with two-thirds of the tickets on the favorite. The problem is what the reads are made of. Minnesota's 4.7 yards per play on offense (29th) and 20 points a game (27th) came with Kyler Murray, and Wentz has not started a game for the Vikings this season. The Vikings defense is real with or without him: 4.7 yards per play allowed (2nd), 5.3 per pass attempt (2nd), 13.3 points a game (1st) and 29.7% on third down. Buffalo's offense is the other extreme, 6.3 yards per play (2nd), 8.7 per pass attempt and 33.3 points a game (1st), behind a line that may be missing both tackles. On the total, our 47.8 and Massey's 46.5 are 2 to 3 points over 44.5, below our bar, and a quarterback change is a reason to leave a total alone.
How the Bills and Vikings got here
| Team | Record | Last three | PPG / allowed | Yards per play (off / def) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | W 37-34 OT @ LAR, W 33-30 @ LV, W 36-10 vs BAL | 33.3 (1st) / 25.9 | 6.3 (2nd) / 5.4 (16th) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-1 | W 23-13 @ NO, W 16-10 vs IND, L 15-19 @ DET | 20.0 / 13.3 (1st) | 4.7 (29th) / 4.7 (2nd) |
Buffalo is 6-1 and leads the league in scoring at 33.3 points a game, with Josh Allen throwing for 8.7 yards an attempt behind the second-ranked offense by yards per play. The one loss was 29-26 to New England on October 4. The Bills have given up 30 or more three times, 25.9 a game for the season (23rd), and have allowed 5.4 yards per play (16th). They come off a bye week and a 36-10 win over Baltimore, and DJ Moore, acquired from Chicago in the offseason, is on the report with a shoulder injury.
Minnesota is 6-1 after a 6-0 start that ended 19-15 in Detroit on November 1, the game in which Kyler Murray was hurt. The Vikings have won with defense all season: 13.3 points allowed a game is the best in the league by a wide margin, and they have held five of seven opponents to 13 or fewer. The offense has been the question even with Murray, 20 points a game and 4.7 yards per play. Carson Wentz makes his 101st career start on Monday with Max Brosmer as the backup, per the team, and coach Kevin O'Connell said Thursday that Murray is week-to-week. Minnesota traded J.J. McCarthy to the Giants on September 28, so Wentz was the only experienced option left.
Bills vs Vikings injury report
| Player | Team | Injury | Thursday | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | MIN | Hamstring strain | DNP | QB, OUT; week-to-week per Kevin O'Connell |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | Not listed | QB, starts Monday; Max Brosmer backs up | |
| Christian Darrisaw | MIN | Shoulder | LP | LT |
| Theo Jackson | MIN | Quad | DNP | S, regular starter |
| Jauan Jennings | MIN | Calf | LP | WR |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | MIN | Chest | LP | OLB |
| Dion Dawkins | BUF | Ribs | DNP | LT; SI expects him to play |
| Spencer Brown | BUF | Back | LP | RT, missed Week 8 |
| Alec Anderson | BUF | Ankle | DNP | LG, walking boot Sunday; Austin Corbett would start |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | Chest / ribs | LP | TE |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | Shoulder | LP | WR |
| DJ Moore | BUF | Shoulder | LP | WR, non-contact jersey |
| Josh Palmer | BUF | Hamstring | DNP | WR, could miss multiple weeks |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | Illness | DNP | RB |
Statuses are from the Vikings' initial report (Thursday, November 5), the Bills' Thursday report as carried by Sports Illustrated and AtoZ Sports, and the CBS Sports injury page, as of Friday morning, November 6. Because this is a Monday game, the practice week runs through Saturday and the official designations come out Saturday, with inactives 90 minutes before the 8:15 PM kickoff. The two things to watch: whether Dawkins and Anderson practice by Saturday, since Buffalo has 18 players on the report and three of them are offensive linemen, and whether Theo Jackson is available for a Vikings secondary that has to cover Allen's receivers. Murray has already been ruled out.
For the rest of the slate, see our NFL Week 9 preview and our Week 9 power rankings. Other games we broke down this week: Cowboys vs Colts, Giants vs Eagles, Buccaneers vs Bears.