Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction: Odds, Injuries and Our Lean for Sunday Night
The Chicago Bears are a 6.5-point home favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football at Soldier Field, with a total of 47.5, as of Friday, November 6, 2026, 11:30 AM ET. The line implies a final around Bears 27, Buccaneers 20.5. Chicago is 6-2 and has won three straight with Caleb Williams back; Tampa Bay is 3-5 and has won two straight, the last a 16-0 shutout of Atlanta in the rain in which the Bucs completed zero passes and ran for 324 yards. Our number, Massey and the Prediction Tracker all make the Bears a four- to five-point favorite, not 6.5, so our lean is on Tampa Bay with the points. Here is the full Buccaneers vs Bears prediction from the odds, the models and the injury reports.
Buccaneers vs Bears odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (TB / CHI) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bears -6.5 (Bucs +6.5, -120) | +225 / -275 | 47.5 |
| bet365 | Bears -6.5 (Bucs +6.5, -115) | +235 / -290 | 47.5 |
| FanDuel | Bears -6.5 (Bucs +6.5, -115) | +220 / -270 | 47.5 |
| Fanatics | Bears -5.5 (Bucs +5.5, +100) | +220 / -275 | 47.5 |
| Caesars | Bears -6.5 (Bucs +6.5, -122) | +225 / -280 | 47.5 |
| Opener (SportsbookReview) | Bears -6 | +225 / -275 | 47.5 |
Lines are from SportsbookReview's odds board as of Friday morning, cross-checked against VegasInsider's Week 9 page (updated Thursday, 11:36 PM: Bears -6, 47.5, -298/+240) and Action Network, which shows the lookahead opener at Bears -3.5 and 68% of bets on Chicago. The DraftKings column on the SBR board has been stale this season and BetRivers shows a stray pick'em, so both are left out of the ranges. The best Buccaneers number is +6.5 at -115 at bet365 and FanDuel, or +5.5 at even money at Fanatics; the best Bears price is -5.5 at Fanatics. Our free plays for the week are on our free picks page.
Buccaneers vs Bears prediction from the odds
The market says Bears 27, Buccaneers 20.5. Our own number starts from each team's yards per play on offense and defense (TeamRankings, through Week 8), projects plays and points for each side, blends that with the scoring averages, adds 2.5 for home field and adjusts for schedule strength. It comes out Bears 25.2, Buccaneers 21.3, Chicago by 4.1 with a total of 46.5. Massey Ratings projects Bears 24, Buccaneers 20 (66% Chicago) with a total of 44.5. The Prediction Tracker's 55-system median is Bears by 5 (average 5.5, standard deviation 2.78, one of the tightest spreads of systems on the board), with Chicago covering 49.2% of the time.
| Read | Margin | Total | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Bears -6.5 | 47.5 | SportsbookReview, 11:30 AM ET |
| Our number | Bears -4.1 | 46.5 | Yards per play, SOS-adjusted, +2.5 home |
| Massey Ratings | Bears -4 (24-20) | 44.5 | masseyratings.com |
| Prediction Tracker median | Bears -5 | n/a | 55 systems, sd 2.78, CHI cover 49% |
All three reads have the Bears as the better team and the home team, and all three have the margin between 4 and 5, not 6.5. The gap is small, 1.5 to 2.5 points, which is why this is a lean rather than a pick. The unit matchup is what keeps us on the Buccaneers side: Tampa Bay runs for 5.1 yards a carry and leads the league at 168.6 rushing yards a game, Chicago allows 4.4 a carry (22nd) and 6.0 yards per play (31st), and the Bucs defense allows 4.9 yards per play (5th) against a Bears offense that averages 5.4. The counter is Chicago's pass defense, 7.7 yards per attempt allowed (31st), against a Tampa Bay passing game that ranks last in the league at 131.4 yards a game. On the total, our 46.5 and Massey's 44.5 are both under 47.5, but by one and three points, which is not close to the eight-point bar we need for a football total.
How the Buccaneers and Bears got here
| Team | Record | Last three | PPG / allowed | Yards per play (off / def) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 | L 19-26 OT vs PIT, W 43-13 @ CAR, W 16-0 vs ATL | 22.3 / 18.9 | 4.8 (25th) / 4.9 (5th) |
| Chicago Bears | 6-2 | W 31-23 @ ATL, W 30-24 vs NE, W 34-17 @ SEA | 26.8 / 20.0 | 5.4 (14th) / 6.0 (31st) |
Tampa Bay is 3-5 but has won two straight by a combined 46 points, 43-13 at Carolina and 16-0 over Atlanta. The Atlanta game was played in heavy rain and the Bucs ran 324 yards and did not complete a pass, per the team's game preview. For the season the Bucs are first in rushing at 168.6 yards a game, last in passing at 131.4, fifth in scoring defense at 18.9 points allowed and plus-4 in turnover margin. Baker Mayfield practiced in full on Wednesday and Thursday with a right thumb injury on the report. Mike Evans is gone, signed with San Francisco in the offseason, and Chris Godwin is 39 yards short of 8,000 for his career.
Chicago is 6-2 with three straight wins, the last a 34-17 win in Seattle on Monday night. Caleb Williams returned after missing three games with a hamstring injury and has a 104.6 passer rating with six touchdowns and one interception. D'Andre Swift has 545 yards and 10 touchdowns on 143 carries, and the Bears are second in rushing at 150.8 yards a game and third in total offense at 387.3. The defense is the soft spot: 20.0 points allowed (8th) looks fine, but it comes on 6.0 yards per play allowed (31st) and 7.7 per pass attempt (31st), and the Bears are minus-1 in turnover margin. Both teams are a half-game out of first in their divisions.
Buccaneers vs Bears injury report
| Player | Team | Injury | Thursday | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Wirfs | TB | Toe | DNP | OT; team preview says he starts his 100th game |
| Yaya Diaby | TB | Knee | DNP | LB, DNP Wed and Thu |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | Foot | FP | WR, back to full Thursday |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | Right thumb | FP | QB, full both days |
| Chris Godwin / Bucky Irving | TB | Rest | DNP | WR / RB, rest days, not injuries |
| Tykee Smith | TB | Ankle | LP | S, questionable per CBS |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | Thumb / toe | DNP | RB, DNP Wed and Thu |
| Grady Jarrett | CHI | Groin | LP | DL, DNP Wed |
| Theo Benedet | CHI | Shoulder | LP | OT, questionable per CBS |
| D'Marco Jackson | CHI | Ankle | DNP | LB, questionable per CBS |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | Injured reserve | Out | TE, placed on IR Oct 23 |
Statuses are from the CBS Sports injury page, the Buccaneers' game preview and the Bears' injury page as of Friday morning, November 6; neither team had posted a Friday report or a game designation yet, and inactives drop 90 minutes before the 8:20 PM kickoff. Neither quarterback is in doubt. Wirfs is the one to watch: he did not practice Thursday with a toe injury, and the Bucs' own preview says he will play. If he is downgraded Friday, the left side of the line that just ran for 324 yards changes, and so does our lean.
For the rest of the slate, see our NFL Week 9 preview and our Week 9 power rankings. Other games we broke down this week: Cowboys vs Colts, Giants vs Eagles, Bills vs Vikings.