Cowboys vs Colts Prediction: Odds, Injuries and Our Lean for Week 9
The Dallas Cowboys are a 5.5-point road favorite over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, with a total of 51.5, as of Friday, November 6, 2026, 11:00 AM ET. The line implies a final around Cowboys 28.5, Colts 23. Both teams are coming off losses, Dallas 33-30 in overtime to Arizona and Indianapolis 42-7 at Jacksonville, and the Colts are sticking with Daniel Jones at quarterback. Our number, Massey and the Prediction Tracker all make this game closer than the market does, so our lean is on the Colts with the points. Here is the full Cowboys vs Colts prediction from the odds, the models, and the injury reports.
Cowboys vs Colts odds at every book
| Book | Spread | Moneyline (DAL / IND) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Cowboys -4.5 (-118) | -235 / +195 | 51.5 |
| bet365 | Cowboys -5.5 (-110) | -245 / +200 | 51.5 |
| FanDuel | Cowboys -5.5 (-115) | -255 / +205 | 51.5 |
| Fanatics | Cowboys -5.5 (-110) | -245 / +200 | 51.5 |
| Caesars | Cowboys -5.5 (-114) | -245 / +200 | 51.5 |
| Opener (SportsbookReview) | Cowboys -5.5 | -250 / +210 | 51.5 |
Lines are from SportsbookReview's odds board as of Friday morning, cross-checked against VegasInsider's Week 9 page (updated Thursday, 11:36 PM: Cowboys -5.5, 51.5, -230/+190) and Action Network, which shows the lookahead opener at Cowboys -1.5 and 67% of bets on Dallas. The DraftKings column on the SBR board has been stale this season, so it is left out of the ranges. Colts +5.5 is available at six of the seven books; the best Cowboys number is -4.5 at BetMGM. Our free plays for the week are on our free picks page.
Cowboys vs Colts prediction from the odds
The market says Cowboys 28.5, Colts 23. Our own number starts from each team's yards per play on offense and defense (TeamRankings, through Week 8), projects plays and points for each side, blends that with the scoring averages, adds 2.5 for home field and adjusts for schedule strength. It comes out Colts 25.6, Cowboys 26.2 before home field and Colts by 0.1 after it, with a total of 51.9. The Cowboys defense is the reason: it allows 5.9 yards per play (29th) and 26.6 points a game (27th), and it just gave up 33 to Arizona. Massey Ratings projects Colts 27, Cowboys 26 (51% Indianapolis) with a total of 52.5. The Prediction Tracker's 55-system median is Cowboys by 1.75 (average 2.01, standard deviation 3.01), with Indianapolis covering 57% of the time.
| Read | Margin | Total | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Cowboys -5.5 | 51.5 | SportsbookReview, 11:00 AM ET |
| Our number | Colts +0.1 | 51.9 | Yards per play, SOS-adjusted, +2.5 home |
| Massey Ratings | Colts +1 (27-26) | 52.5 | masseyratings.com |
| Prediction Tracker median | Cowboys -1.75 | n/a | 55 systems, sd 3.01, IND cover 57% |
All three reads are on the same side of the number, and the gap is between 3.75 and 6.5 points. The market has moved the other way: the lookahead line was Cowboys -1.5, SBR's opener was -5.5 and that is where it sits, with two-thirds of the tickets on Dallas. A four-point move on 67% public tickets is not the sharp signal that a move against the tickets would be, but it does say the books are happy to take Colts money at this number after a 42-7 loss. Our total of 51.9 and Massey's 52.5 sit within a point of 51.5, so there is nothing on the total.
How the Cowboys and Colts got here
| Team | Record | Last three | PPG / allowed | Yards per play (off / def) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-5 | L 13-23 @ GB, W 38-21 @ PHI, L 30-33 OT vs ARI | 27.4 / 26.6 | 5.3 / 5.9 (29th) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-6 | L 20-26 vs TEN, L 10-16 @ MIN, L 7-42 @ JAX | 20.1 / 27.8 | 4.5 (31st) / 5.9 (30th) |
Dallas is 3-5 with the seventh-best scoring offense in the league (27.4 points a game) and the 27th-ranked scoring defense, which is how a team loses 33-30 in overtime to the 3-5 Cardinals a week after winning 38-21 in Philadelphia. The Cowboys convert 47.5% of third downs and give the ball away 0.9 times a game, but they allow 5.0 yards per rush (31st) and 7.1 per pass attempt (25th). Every game they have played since Week 4 has had at least 36 total points.
Indianapolis is 2-6 and has lost four straight, by 12, 6, 6 and 35. The offense averages 4.5 yards per play (31st) and 20.1 points (26th) and gives the ball away 1.9 times a game. Daniel Jones has nine interceptions and a 39.6 QBR, and the Colts offense ranks 31st in expected points added, per ESPN. Coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Jones remains the starter and that the offense's problems go beyond the quarterback; Anthony Richardson Sr. relieved him late in the Jacksonville game. The defense is the better unit, 5.9 yards per play allowed (30th) but a 32.6% third-down conversion rate allowed, which is one reason Massey still has the Colts a point better at home.
Cowboys vs Colts injury report
| Player | Team | Injury | Thursday | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | DAL | Limited | LP | WR, questionable per CBS |
| Tyler Smith | DAL | Limited | LP | G, questionable per CBS |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | Did not practice (last report, Nov 2) | WR/KR, status unresolved | |
| Daniel Jones | IND | Not listed | Named the starter Monday, Nov 2 | |
| Alec Pierce | IND | Injured reserve | Out | WR, out until at least Week 12 per CBS |
| Andrew Ogletree | IND | Questionable | TE | |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | IND | Did not practice | DNP | LB, questionable |
| Micheal Clemons / Arden Key | IND | Injured reserve | Out | DE, both out until at least Week 10 |
Statuses are from the CBS Sports injury page and the Thursday practice reports as of Friday morning, November 6; the official game designations come out Friday afternoon and inactives drop 90 minutes before the 1:00 PM kickoff. Neither quarterback is on the report. Dallas has two offensive starters limited (Pickens, Tyler Smith) and returner KaVontae Turpin unresolved, and the Colts are without their deep threat Alec Pierce and two edge rushers. A Friday downgrade on Pickens would take points off the Dallas side of our number.
For the rest of the slate, see our NFL Week 9 preview and our Week 9 power rankings. Other games we broke down this week: Giants vs Eagles, Buccaneers vs Bears, Bills vs Vikings.