NFL Week 5 Recap 2026: Five Upsets, Scores Against the Spread
The Buffalo Bills closed NFL Week 5 by beating the Los Angeles Rams 37-34 in overtime as 3.5-point underdogs on Monday night, the fifth outright upset of the week. Through all 15 games, favorites went 7-7 against the closing spread with Cincinnati landing right on 7, Overs went 8-7, and Guaranteed Sport Picks' premium plays went 3-1. Here is every score against the number.
NFL Week 5 scores against the spread and total
| Game | Final | Close | Covered | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | TB 24, DAL 16 | DAL -9.5 | TB, won outright | 49 to 49.5 | Under (40) |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars (London) | JAX 19, PHI 17 | JAX -7.5 to -8.5 | PHI | 41.5 to 42.5 | Under (36) |
| Vikings at Saints | MIN 23, NO 13 | MIN -2.5 | MIN | 41.5 | Under (36) |
| Texans at Titans | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU -6.5 | HOU | 37 to 37.5 | Under (29) |
| Raiders at Patriots | NE 45, LV 17 | NE -3 to -3.5 | NE | 45 to 45.5 | Over (62) |
| Giants at Commanders | 27-27 tie | WAS -3.5 | NYG | 41.5 to 42.5 | Over (54) |
| Bears at Packers | GB 31, CHI 7 | CHI -1.5 | GB, won outright | 46.5 to 47.5 | Under (38) |
| Bengals at Dolphins | CIN 31, MIA 24 | CIN -6.5 to -7.5 | Split: CIN -6.5, push at 7, MIA +7.5 | 44.5 to 45 | Over (55) |
| Colts at Steelers | PIT 34, IND 22 | PIT -2.5 to -3 | PIT | 41.5 to 42.5 | Over (56) |
| Browns at Jets | NYJ 17, CLE 12 | NYJ -2.5 | NYJ | 37.5 to 38.5 | Under (29) |
| Broncos at Chargers | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN -3 to -3.5 | DEN | 41.5 to 42.5 | Under (40) |
| 49ers at Seahawks | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA -3 | SF, won outright | 46.5 to 47 | Over (61) |
| Lions at Cardinals | DET 45, ARI 21 | DET -5.5 | DET | 55 to 55.5 | Over (66) |
| Ravens at Falcons (OT) | BAL 30, ATL 23 | ATL -3 to -3.5 | BAL, won outright | 43.5 to 44 | Over (53) |
| Bills at Rams (OT) | BUF 37, LAR 34 | LAR -3.5 | BUF, won outright | 54.5 to 55.5 | Over (71) |
Where books closed on different numbers we show the range. The one game where that range decided the bet was Cincinnati at Miami: the Bengals won by exactly 7, so -6.5 cashed, -7 pushed and Dolphins +7.5 covered. Our key numbers guide explains why 7 matters so much.
Which underdogs won outright in NFL Week 5?
What NFL Week 5 meant for bettors
Favorites laying a field goal or less had a rough week: Seattle, Atlanta, the Rams and Chicago all lost outright. Bigger favorites were safer, with Houston, Detroit and New England all covering comfortably. On totals, two games that closed in the low 40s blew past their numbers: the Giants and Commanders combined for 54 against a total of 41.5, and Indianapolis and Pittsburgh scored 56 against 41.5 to 42.5.
The Monday night result moved the futures board too. As of Tuesday morning the Rams are still the Super Bowl favorite at +700 to +720, with the 49ers and Bills right behind, and Josh Allen is back atop the MVP market at +250. See our Super Bowl odds, the updated NFL playoff picture and the Week 6 power rankings.
How Guaranteed Sport Picks did in NFL Week 5
Our premium plays went 3-1 and our free play went 1-0. Here is every NFL play we posted for Week 5, graded at the number we released.
| Game | Our pick | Type | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts at Steelers | Steelers -2.5 | Premium | Win |
| Giants at Commanders | Giants +3.5 | Premium | Win |
| Giants at Commanders | Under 41.5 | Premium | Loss |
| 49ers at Seahawks | 49ers +3.5 | Free | Win |
| Bills at Rams (MNF) | Bills +3.5 | Premium | Win |
Pittsburgh covered by 9.5, the Giants' tie covered +3.5 with room to spare, and the Bills won outright. The miss was the same game's total: Giants and Commanders went over 41.5 by 12.5 points. Want next week's plays before kickoff? See our premium picks and packages or grab today's free picks.
An honest lesson from Week 5
We had the Giants plus the points and the Under in the same game, and one cashed while the other lost. That is the nature of a correlated read: if we were right that the game stayed close, we were less likely to be right that it stayed low, and a 27-27 tie through overtime produced both a cover and a big Over. A result is not proof a read was right or wrong, but it is a reminder to size plays in the same game carefully. More on that in our bankroll and unit sizing guide.